Soccer Betting is a series of articles that describe some well known and well used statistical techniques that will help the soccer punter make more informed bets. Each of the techniques has its own advantages and disadvantages and using them in isolation will improve your chances of winning. However, together they will prove invaluable in your battle with the bookies. In each article we will describe in detail how a particular method works giving you enough information for you to go ahead and create your own forecasts. We will also give you information as to where you can already find websites that use this technique in comprising their weekly soccer betting forecasts.
In this article we will be describing the Footyforecast method. The Footyforecast method was originally developed for the English Football Pools and attempts to eliminate those matches that will not be draws, leaving you with a shorter list of matches from which to choose your 8 from 11. This method was introduced to the world in 1999 on the original Footyforecast website (now 1X2Monster. com). This method is similar to the simple Sequence meth lich thi dau moi nhat od which is described in another of our articles in this series.
Here are the basic rules…
For each team work out the following, 1. Work out the total number of points obtained for the last N games. 2. Work out the maximum number of possible points for the last N games. 3. Divide the total number of points obtained by the maximum available and multiply by 100. 4. Calculate the forecast value. In (1) and (2) above N games could be all the home games for the home side and all the away games for the away side. Alternatively N could be the last N games including all home and away games for a team. The forecast value is calculated like this…
Here is a worked example…
Of course you may choose to use different values to those shown above and by experimenting you may come up with better values to use. You may also choose to use all home and away games played by each team in your calculations instead of just home games for the home team and away games for the away team. You may choose to have different thresholds than those shown above. You may also find it beneficial to plot actual results against the Footyforecast method predictions to see how many actual draws fall in the away win, draw, and home win prediction zones.
If you have the necessary skills you could go away and build your own spreadsheet of data or even write a piece of software to take in results and fixtures and apply the Footyforecast method to your data. Or, if you’re lazy like me, you could grab some free software that already does this for you. 1X2Monster and Footyforecast have been providing this kind of facility since 1999. A total of seven different statistical methods are used to determine the outcome of each game played in each league, and a comprehensive record of how each method in each game performed is kept. Apart from how each tip performed within its respective league 1X2Monster also provides the league tables of how each league has performed in successfully predicting outcomes of games. The league tables of prediction performance are produced for home win predictions, draw predictions, away win predictions, and for overall predictions and are invaluable tools to the soccer punter when deciding where to target their European soccer betting predictions.