Rugby Betting : Advise for Trading Bets at Rugby Match ups

By choosing tennis as your selected sport for betting, you have already given yourself an “edge” against people who bet on or offer odds on other sports. To make use of this “edge” to make money consistently, however, you’ll need to know two fundamental principles first. Then apply the ability of mathematics.

Principle #1

It’s sheer folly to place a tennis bet (or a bet on anything) with a “traditional” bookmaker. The expression “You can’t beat the bookie” is axiomatic; you merely cannot beat the bookie over time. It’s because the odds are always mathematically calculated in favour of the bookmaker. Everyone knows (or should know) that the bookie’s mathematical “edge” from the punter is necessary for him to create a profit so that he can stay in business.

Computer technology has given rise to a brand new kind of betting, called “exchange betting” or “matched betting” ;.With “betting exchanges” there’s no bookie to beat; in other words, there’s no middle-man. Every punter bets against another punter or punters somewhere available in the Internet ether. Any punter (or “trader”) can place a “back” bet that the player or team will win, and/or place a “lay” bet that the player or team will lose. Thus, any punter can choose to act as an ordinary bettor and/or as a bookmaker.

With exchange betting the odds aren’t set by a third-party or middle-man; they’re set by the punters themselves, who place requests for odds where they’re prepared to place bets (if they wish to act as an ordinary bettor), or place offers of odds where they’re willing to lay bets (if they wish to act as a bookmaker).

Whilst the “back” bettors gradually lower their requested odds and the “lay” bettors gradually raise their offered odds, the application on the exchange betting website matches all the trunk bets with the lay bets at the instant they coincide. The accounts of the “backers” or “layers” are then credited using their winnings automatically a couple of seconds after the end of the big event according to its result.

Obviously, the technology for providing this kind of “fair” betting service should be paid for somehow. This payment is taken in the proper execution of a commission on the punter’s net winnings on an event (or “market”). That is, commission is charged only on any positive difference between winnings and losses on the same event.

You will find hardly any betting exchanges available, however, perhaps because the exchange betting software is indeed complex and therefore costly. The giant among exchange betting the web sites is Betfair, with about 90% of the marketplace during the time of writing. Others will be the Global Betting Exchange (BetDAQ), ibetX, Betsson, Matchbook and the World Bet Exchange (WBX). Betfair is definitely the most used because it was the first ever to offer this “perfectly fair” betting environment, and is trusted to execute accurately and instantly.

Principle #2

So, why does tennis betting offer you that “edge” over betting on other sports? The answer, though simple, is often overlooked even by people who bet tennis regularly. And if you’re someone who’s never bet on tennis, you’d almost certainly not need realized the significance of the tennis scoring system on the betting.

In tennis, however, the trailing player or team can lose the initial set 6-0 (possibly with a deficit of 24 points). That team can then win the 2nd set by probably the most narrow of margins, 7-6 in a tie-break, winning the set by hardly any points (or even by winning fewer points compared to the opponents, a rare but possible occurrence!).

This anomaly often has a profound psychological effect using one or both parties, which affects how they play for the following short while, and therefore also the betting odds requested and made available from punters on the match. This, however, is another facet of tennis betting which may be the subject of another article. This information relates to the mathematical facet of tennis betting and how exactly to win money with this specific knowledge.

The important thing is never to be just a “backer” or a “layer”, simply betting on the last outcome of an event. Should you that, you will lose out as time passes, because there’s always a tiny difference involving the “back” odds and the “lay” odds — there has to be, otherwise there’d be no incentive for anybody to provide odds and there’d be no betting at all. Combine that with the commission you pay in your net winnings, and the “edge” is against you mathematically (although it’s much less great as with conventional bookmakers).

The trick to winning at tennis betting is to be BOTH a “backer” AND a “layer”, but at different points through the event. That is another facet of betting that distinguishes the exchange betting website from the standard bookie. At the betting exchange you can place a right back or lay bet at any time during the big event, right up until the very last second or the last point. This is called “in-play” betting.

Because in-play betting is allowed, the odds for every opposing side change as the big event progresses, based on the likelihood (as perceived by the punters) of either one side or another being the eventual winner. The trick is to place a right back bet using one side at certain odds and later place a lay bet on that side (or a right back bet on another side) at better odds as fortunes change and the odds swing in your favour. When you can achieve this, you will win your bet overall, regardless of the outcome of the big event — a genuine “win-win” scenario. เว็บแทงไก่ชนครบวงจร

Why bet on tennis and not on other sports?

Besides Principle #2, explained earlier, tennis is ideal for such “swing” betting, because the odds fluctuate after every point is played. You will find therefore very many small swings to at least one side and then to the other. This doesn’t happen in soccer, for example, because goals are so rare and a goal shifts the bonus suddenly and hugely to the scoring side.

The more possible outcomes you will find to factor into the equation, the harder it’s to win. (Despite this obvious logic, soccer and horse racing remain the 2 most widely used sports for betting, probably for historical reasons. Tennis has already been third in popularity, however, as more and more punters discover the fact it is easier to make money betting on tennis than on any other sport.)

Earlier it was stated that the key to winning at tennis betting is to be both a “backer” and a “layer”, but at different points during the big event, placing bets at differing times during the big event as fortunes change and the odds swing in your favour. This can be carried out with both “in-play” betting and “pre-event” betting.

One method combined with in-play betting is named “scalping” ;.As its name suggests, scalping involves skimming a little profit by backing or laying at precisely the right moment since the odds move slightly in your favour, perhaps when one player scores 2 or 3 consecutive points, and repeating the procedure again and again. The largest drawback of scalping is it is very time-consuming and fraught with mental and physical tension. Not just must you pay full focus on what’s happening through the match by live video broadcast, but you need to also catch precisely the right moments where to bet, which will be, actually, made impossible by the 5-second delay imposed by the exchange betting software between the time you place the bet and the time it’s accepted.

Mathematics don’t lie!

There are always a few tennis betting “systems”, some purely manual, others using applications, some which are enormously complicated. From the investigations of the writer (a mathematician), all of them require the input, at some point, of a “probability factor” by the bettor. This probability factor is usually the odds at which you want your “balancing” bet (the “lay” bet on the “backed” side or the “back” bet on the opposing side) to be triggered, providing you the “win-win” scenario mentioned earlier.

So, how will you determine the worthiness of the probability factor? That, dear reader, may be the crucial point of the whole matter, the linch-pin that holds any exchange betting “system” together and determines if it succeeds or fails, whether you win or lose.

So far, it appears, this probability factor has must be determined by the sheer experience of a few seasoned professional gamblers, or by trial-and-error guesswork by lesser mortals. Little wonder that so many punters lose or don’t win around they may because they don’t know the EXACT value needed seriously to optimize their bets!

Accuracy is of paramount importance when determining the probability factor, to be able to maximize the chances of winning consistently. A search on the Web for an instrument to calculate it proved negative. The writer therefore created one that encompasses not merely all facets of exchange betting but also the peculiarities of the tennis scoring system, and called it the Abacus Exchange Betting Calculator, for want of a much better name. The probability factor is calculated to two decimal places, merely by entering the pre-event odds of both opposing sides, and has enabled the writer to produce consistently more than 10% profit from tennis betting since Wimbledon 2009.

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